Translated automatically by AI from the Italian original.
ROME – Sharp falls on international energy commodity markets today. A wave of selling in oil and gas was triggered by optimism over reports of a possible resumption of dialogue between the United States and Iran to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
The reaction from traders was immediate and substantial:
- WTI (US crude): recorded losses of up to 6.7%, hitting a low of $97.10 a barrel before settling at $97.50 (-6.3%).
- Brent (European benchmark): down 6.7% to $105.86, then stabilising at $106.60 (-6%).
- Natural gas (Amsterdam TTF): an even sharper drop of 8.5%, falling to €95 per megawatt hour.
Openings from Tehran and diplomacy ahead of US midterms
The market correction was driven by the expanded negotiating powers granted by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the Tehran government. President Masoud Pezeshkian – via the state news agency Irna – confirmed he had received a clear mandate to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The turnaround comes on the eve of the US midterm elections, amid indications that President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are willing to support Qatar’s mediation, while keeping military pressure active.
Selling accelerated after the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, proposed speeding up the restoration of safe navigation. Iran said it was ready to reopen the corridor within 48 hours (compared with the seven days previously suggested), subject to specific conditions outlined by foreign minister Abbas Araghchi:
- Lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports;
- Release of frozen assets abroad;
- Removal of restrictions on crude oil exports.
The Strait’s centrality and LNG’s vulnerability
Although the negotiations still involve complex issues related to concessions and routes agreed with Oman, markets have begun to price in the reopening of the maritime artery.
According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 25% of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz (around 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products). A safe resumption would remove the spectre of a supply shock, which would hit Asian economies such as China and India hardest (they absorbed 44% of the oil in transit in 2025).
Even more critical is the position of liquefied natural gas (LNG): 93% of Qatar’s exports and 96% of the United Arab Emirates’ pass through Hormuz, accounting for about one-fifth of global trade. Unlike oil – which benefits from alternative land pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE carrying 3.5–5.5 million barrels a day – LNG has no substitute routes. This logistical asymmetry explains the sharp fall in European methane prices to €95/MWh at the first signs of easing tensions.
