Translated automatically by AI from the Italian original.
The US vote will soon redraw the Washington-Jerusalem axis
According to early analyses in Israeli media, the geopolitical and diplomatic balance between Israel and the United States is heading for profound change.
The outcome of the US midterm elections, marked by Republican defeat and the transfer of Congress to Democratic control, together with the Trump presidency’s strategies and the outlook for the 2028 presidential race, presents Jerusalem with unprecedented strategic challenges.
The impact on the bilateral relationship unfolds on three main fronts:
Managing the conflict with Iran
The political weight of the war with Tehran proved decisive at the ballot box. Exit polls showed 62% of American voters opposed continuing the conflict. Faced with public discontent, the White House now has two possible scenarios.
First, the diplomatic route: speeding up negotiations with Tehran to reach a deal that would allow Washington to disengage from the Middle East and present it as a negotiating success.
Second, a rapid operation: a brief but high-impact military intervention to declare victory, neutralise the threat and withdraw troops quickly.
Both options risk diverging from Israel’s long-term security goals, potentially creating friction with the US administration.
The new Congress and the rise of the progressive wing
The handover in Congress gives Democrats control of key committees and the legislative agenda. The growth of the progressive faction brings increasingly critical positions on Israeli policy to the fore, with mounting pressure to launch official investigations and hearings into the management of the Gaza conflict. This could condition or reduce US military and economic assistance to Israel and ultimately rewrite the terms of the historically solid “special relationship” between the two countries.
The race for the 2028 presidential election
The midterm results show that open criticism of Israeli policies and organisations such as AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) is no longer an electoral obstacle but a draw for the Democratic base. With the primaries and the 2028 presidential election in view, politicians and figures from the new progressive generation may become reference points for future candidates. The debate within the Democratic Party risks shifting towards increasingly uncompromising positions on Jerusalem.
Anyone seeking the Democratic nomination for the White House will have to reckon with a voter base that is strongly critical of the traditional unconditional support for Israel.
